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Contrarian Venture Capital Investing
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Module 3
How Venture Categories Become Hot—and Cold
1
Why a Few Winners Mislead: Power Laws, Small Samples, and Survivorship Bias
Explain how power-law outcomes, small samples, and survivorship bias encourage overgeneralization from a few category winners.
2
Brand-Name VC Investment as a Catalyst for Startup Growth
Analyze a brand-name VC investment as a public signal that can alter subsequent financing, hiring, customer adoption, and company performance.
3
How Capital Inflows Shape Emerging Startup Categories
Trace how capital inflows change startup formation, competition, talent allocation, and the apparent quality of an emerging category.
4
How Financing Events Drive Venture Valuation Changes
Explain how comparable financings, private-market marks, and follow-on rounds propagate valuation changes across the venture lifecycle.
5
How Failures and Funding Shocks Create Industry-Wide Stigma and Underinvestment
Analyze how disappointing cohorts, salient failures, or follow-on funding shocks can break a reflexive loop and produce category-wide stigma and underinvestment.
Previous module
Mimesis, Narratives, and Reflexive Booms
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An Integrated Contrarian VC Framework