Building and Managing a 3–12 Month Trade

Write a falsifiable commodity-market thesis supported by fundamental, company, and price evidence.

Define a trade’s catalyst, entry condition, invalidation condition, exit rule, and maximum holding period.

Calculate position size from a portfolio risk budget, entry price, and invalidation level.

Measure aggregate commodity, sector, currency, and correlation exposure across a proposed portfolio.

Stress-test a position using adverse commodity-price, currency, volatility, and company-specific scenarios.

Produce a one-page trade plan that compares direct commodity exposure with a related LSE- or NYSE-listed equity and defends the selected instrument.