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Contrarian Venture Capital Investing
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Module 4
A Contrarian VC Investment Framework
1
Mapping Venture Category Dynamics with Causal Loops
Construct a causal-loop map showing the beliefs, signals, capital flows, behaviors, and fundamentals driving a venture category.
2
Diagnosing Venture Category Market Cycles
Diagnose whether a venture category is in neglect, discovery, acceleration, euphoria, reversal, or capitulation.
3
Distinguishing Contrarian Opportunities from Justified Avoidance
Distinguish a contrarian opportunity from justified avoidance by testing base rates, structural constraints, and alternative explanations.
4
Formulating a Falsifiable Contrarian Thesis Against Consensus
Formulate a falsifiable contrarian thesis that specifies the prevailing consensus, its causal weakness, and evidence that would change the thesis.
5
Stage-Aware Investment Planning: Timing, Sizing, Reserves, and Exit Criteria
Design a stage-aware investment plan that addresses entry timing, position size, follow-on reserves, reversal signals, and thesis-kill criteria.
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